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British Companies – Plug Deficits that could Grow by 85 billion pounds
British companies with defined benefit pension schemes are likely to face rising pressure to plug deficits that could grow by 85 billion pounds ($134 billion) this year against a backdrop of falling bond yields and prolonged market volatility, a survey on Tuesday showed.
If equity markets drop 10 percent more, UK gilt yields fall another 30 basis points and inflation stays just below 5 percent, UK defined benefit pension funds could see deficits spiral, pension liability insurer Pension Insurance Corporation (PIC) estimates in its latest Pension Risk Tracker Index.
Benefits under these schemes are pre-determined using a formula based on salary and duration of employment.
“The possible impact on funding positions of QE (quantitative easing), tension in the Middle East and a Greek default might be expected to be significant. Combined, they could prove devastating,” said David Collinson, Co-Head of Business Origination at PIC.
The Bank of England looks set to plough on with a third round of quantitative easing this week to shore up Britain’s economy. This will further depress the yield of UK gilts, a pension fund’s staple investment, making it more expensive for funds to match income to liabilities unless they add riskier, higher-yielding assets to portfolios.
Pension funds in the UK slashed their weightings for equities to an average of 55 percent in 2011 from 65 percent, while fixed-income holdings rose to 45 percent from 35 percent calculates PIC, as the euro zone crisis roiled equity markets.
The scale of the shortfall will likely be crystallised when around 40 percent of pension funds in the UK report their triennial valuations at the end of March, an assessment of their financial strength conducted every three years.
“There will unfortunately be many tough conversations about funding plans, following March’s triennial valuations,” said Collinson.
“Big companies sitting on cash will be asked by pension funds to be paid and there will be a tension there for well-off companies about how quickly they should be expected to pay off deficits.”
Large pension contributions by companies are an immediate hit on cash flow, diverting money from shareholder dividends, stock buybacks and capital investments.
UK companies would have needed to inject 470 billion pounds into pension schemes as of March 31 2011, to match their liabilities, the latest edition of the Purple Book, an annual publication of the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) and the Pensions Regulator estimates.
Set up in 2005 to protect the savings accrued by private sector workers, the PPF takes on the assets and liabilities of pension funds that fall under its jurisdiction and charges a levy to pension funds potentially eligible for its help.
PIC has around 4.5 billion pounds in assets and has insured more than 50,000 pension fund members from FTSE 100 companies, multinationals and the public sector.
Smaller Gulf banks
Smaller Gulf banks, squeezed by difficult funding conditions and flush with bond paper following the busiest period of issuance from the region on record, are increasingly exploiting the repo market to raise capital.
The banks are using repurchase agreements — contracts in which a security, such as a bond certificate, is temporarily transferred to another holder during a set period in exchange for capital — to manage liquidity as other sources of funding dry up.
Bond issuance out of the Gulf Cooperation Council has totalled $91.5 billion in the last three years, according to Thomson Reuters data, with much of the paper being issued by highly rated, state-linked entities.
With lending levels in the region falling away in recent months as a result of the European debt crisis, banks, the largest investor type in a part of the world which lacks developed insurance and asset management sectors, are increasingly using their holdings of this paper to access funds.
“The single most useful aspect of our balance sheet is the significant investment-grade bond book — of which around 80 percent is repoable,” said one regional banker, who declined to be identified.
“In the last 12 months, we have done more repos than in the last ten years.”
Repos come in two forms: short-term, for example lasting 90 days, and term repos, which can be for one or two years or the life of the bond. The rate at which the money is lent is usually much lower than the equivalent in the interbank or syndicated loan markets, since the lender has the security of the bond on its balance sheet — important when funding conditions are unfavourable.
“The interbank markets are dead right now so banks are looking at different things,” the Dubai-based banker said.
“We use them as a backstop. They can help liquidity ratios as we can repo when needs be.”
SMALLER BANKS
While larger regional institutions have been using the repo market for some years, it is the growing use of repos at smaller banks which has been noticeable in the last few months.
“There has been a big drive in repo activity, especially for GCC banks using them for the first time,” the regional banker said, estimating around 50-60 percent of banks in the region now used the repo market against near 10 percent a couple of years ago.
“I’m aware that some small GCC banks are buying U.S. Treasuries for the pure purpose of repoing them,” he added.
This activity is being encouraged not only by the difficult funding conditions but also by two other factors.
“A lot of international banks are doing it (arranging) so the pricing is competitive,” a second Dubai-based banker said.
“If the bonds are ECB- (European Central Bank) or Fed- (U.S. Federal Reserve) eligible, then the lending bank can repo them directly with the central bank” if it wants to borrow money through market operations by those central banks, he added.
However, while repos can achieve lower funding costs for local banks, they can also limit the banks’ room to maneouvre. A borrower may want to exit a repo deal early but find that the lender has already used the bond in another repo transaction, which may not expire for some time. The borrower may then need to bear the cost of acquiring the bond from the market.
“You don’t have control – you can exit the repo but the bank might have sold the bond,” the first Dubai banker said.
The second factor encouraging repos is the increasingly flexible attitude of banks in the region towards their balance sheets, which includes a shift away from exclusively holding bonds as investments to term. The shift is due partly to financial pressures and partly to banks’ growing sophistication.
This change is more of a phenomenon at conventional banks than Islamic banks, since with fewer sukuk (Islamic bond) issues outstanding, sharia-compliant institutions are more reluctant to sell paper once they have invested.
The question of whether repoing is sharia-compliant is also something which puts off Islamic banks, which according to consultants Ernst & Young, account for about 26 percent of assets in the GCC’s commercial banking market.
National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank completed in August the first sharia-compliant repo transaction in the Gulf. But the debate remains an active one.
Sheikh Muddassir Siddiqui, sharia scholar and partner at SNR Denton in Dubai, said gains on repo agreements were viewed as a form of interest by the majority of Islamic jurists, while another objection centred around the forward sale of the asset by the buyer.

